Drake placed two bets in an attempt to test his skill and luck. This was a reference to the national championship game between UConn and San Diego State. In the process, he suffered a total loss of $120,000. The wagers placed carried a negative expected value. The stakes were such that if UConn won by a margin of 6 to 10 points, $250,000 would be wagered. The value of the winnings was $835,000.
On the condition that UConn wins by 11 or more points, the wager amount would be $100,000, with the payout amounting to $130,000. In the event that UConn won by six, seven, eight, nine, or ten points, Drake laid wagers totaling $250,000 with odds of +294.
In the past three seasons of college basketball, out of all the games played, almost 23.7% of them happened to have been completed with margins of 6–10 points. In these cases, there were no real winners. It was predicted that UConn would win the game below 80% of them.
Under this calculation, it would seem that the chances of UConn winning by 6–10 points were about 18.7%. In the case of Drake, however, the odds at top basketball betting sites happened to have been +294 and spelled out a possibility of 25.4%.
A less exciting bet of $350,000 on the spread at UConn -7 or -7.5 would have netted him around $318,000.
According to a hypothetical mathematical estimate, if UConn wins about 80% of the time, betting on UConn at -330, the best market odds available on Sunday afternoon, would yield a 3.5% edge.
Under normal circumstances, it seldom turns out favorable, laying bets on parlays. In Drake’s case, the bets were not on ordinary parlays, but they happened to have been parlayed nonetheless. The requirement was for two happenings to take place simultaneously for him to come out of the entire deal with a profit earned for himself.
