As preparations intensify for the Scottish Budget 2026-27, the Scottish Greens have escalated calls for a new Casino Tax. This has placed additional pressure on the SNP-led government to find urgent solutions to a growing funding crisis. The proposal comes amid warnings of a £1bn fiscal hole in Scotland’s capital spending plans, raising concerns about the future of major infrastructure projects.
The issue gained renewed prominence after being analyzed by the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI), which highlighted a substantial shortfall in capital investment for the next financial year. In response, Green MSP Ross Greer has formally urged Finance Secretary Shona Robison to introduce a levy on gambling venues, including casinos and bookmakers, arguing that the sector must contribute more directly to public finances. The demand positions gambling taxation at the centre of Scotland’s fiscal debate, as ministers face difficult choices ahead of the January Budget statement.
The scale of the challenge confronting the Scottish Government was laid bare by the Fraser of Allander Institute, which identified a £1bn capital spending gap for 2026-27. According to the FAI, this gap threatens the viability of long-term investment plans outlined in the Infrastructure Investment Plan, which underpins spending on the following sectors:
While recent UK Budget announcements delivered additional funding through Barnett Consequentials, the relief has largely been confined to day-to-day or “resource” spending. The FAI has cautioned that the Scottish Government’s increasing reliance on temporary or “one-off” funding measures is not sustainable. Without structural changes to revenue or expenditure, ministers may face a stark choice between cancelling major projects or identifying new income streams to stabilise capital budgets.
Against this backdrop, the Scottish Greens have promoted the idea of Casino Tax as a targeted solution. The proposal focuses on physical gambling premises operating in Scotland, including casinos and high-street bookmakers, rather than online gambling platforms regulated at the UK level.
Ross Greer, Scottish Green Party MSP for the West of Scotland region, has framed the policy as both a revenue-raising measure and a form of social justice. According to the Greens, gambling venues generate significant profits while contributing to social harms such as addiction, debt, and pressure on public health services. A dedicated Gambling Levy Scotland would, in their view, help recoup some of these wider societal costs.
The proposal also reflects broader trends in UK gambling policy. From April 2026, the UK Government plans to increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40%, affecting online operators nationwide. The Greens argue that a devolved tax on land-based venues would complement these reforms while giving Scotland greater control over how gambling-related revenues are allocated.
The debate over Casino Tax is closely tied to concerns about the future of Scotland’s infrastructure pipeline. Without addressing the capital spending gap, projects within the Infrastructure Investment Plan face delays, scaling back, or outright cancellation.
Education and healthcare infrastructure are among the areas most at risk. New school buildings, hospital upgrades, and transport improvements depend heavily on stable capital funding over multiple years. Any disruption could have long-term consequences for service delivery and economic growth.
The Fraser of Allander Institute has noted that the Scottish Government’s fiscal options are limited. Further increases in income tax for higher earners, a key feature of recent SNP Budget proposals, may prove politically and economically challenging. Concerns about taxpayer mobility and competitiveness have led analysts to describe additional income tax rises as potentially “undeliverable.”
So far, Shona Robison, Scotland’s Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government, has acknowledged the “constrained financial environment” facing Scotland but has stopped short of confirming whether a gambling levy will feature in the upcoming Budget. She is expected to outline her approach to capital funding when she presents the Budget to Parliament in mid-January.
Opposition parties have seized on the issue to criticise SNP financial management. Scottish Labour has accused the government of failing to plan adequately for long-term investment needs, arguing that last-minute tax proposals highlight deeper structural weaknesses in public sector funding and public sector reform.
Industry representatives, however, have voiced strong opposition. Gambling sector bodies warn that a new Casino Tax could lead to job losses, reduced investment, and the closure of marginal venues, particularly in smaller towns. They argue that land-based operators already face rising costs from regulation, staffing, and energy prices.
With the Scottish Budget 2026-27 approaching, the call for a Casino Tax has emerged as a defining issue in Scotland’s fiscal debate. The Scottish Government must now decide whether to adopt the Greens’ proposal for a Gambling Levy Scotland, pursue alternative revenue measures, or accept significant reductions to the Infrastructure Investment Plan.
The outcome will shape not only Scotland’s capital investment trajectory but also the broader political narrative around taxation, social responsibility, and economic sustainability. The decision on whether to embrace the Scottish Greens’ Casino Tax or announce major project cuts will signal how the SNP intends to navigate one of the most challenging financial environments in recent years.
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