Illegal betting on the Premier League could reach £1 billion a year by the 2027/28 season, according to the trade body for licensed operators. The Betting and Gaming Council made the forecast in a letter published on 24 August. The projection comes as the Premier League begins its first season without gambling brands on the front of matchday shirts and as the UK prepares for a major change to how remote betting operators are taxed.
The BGC estimates the illegal market will take up to £800 million in bets across the 2026/27 season, including about £20 million over the opening weekend. It claims a regular weekend usually sees between £15 million and £20 million for unlicensed firms. The £800 million figure is forecast to rise by a further £200 million next season, reaching around £1 billion a year. Still, the BGC hasn’t shared its methodology for these predictions or named the source of its analysis.
Higher General Betting Duty Adds Pressure
The BGC connects the forecast increase in illegal betting to changes in General Betting Duty. General Betting Duty currently stands at 15% of bookmakers’ profits, with no distinction between online and in-shop bets.
Starting 1 April 2027, a new remote betting rate of 25% will apply to online bets. Some types of betting won’t be affected by this new rate. Remote bets on UK horse racing and bets made through self-service betting terminals in licensed venues will still have the 15% rate. Spread bets and pool bets are also excluded from the 25%.
This shift follows another major tax rise that has already taken effect. Remote Gaming Duty, which applies to online casinos and slots, not betting, rose from 21% to 40% on 1 April 2026.
The BGC says H2 Gambling Capital has warned that a higher General Betting Duty will put more stress on licensed gambling operators. The move comes along with rising regulatory costs, too. Gambling Commission operating licence fees are set to go up 25% starting 1 October 2026, with the extra money supporting the regulator.
BGC Cites H2 Gambling Capital Forecasts
According to the BGC, higher costs for licensed operators could give illegal gambling businesses more space to grow. Unregulated operators don’t have to follow the rules in the UK when it comes to consumer protection, safer gambling, or financial safeguards.
The trade body says illegal operators pay no tax and don’t contribute to the regulated system at all. It also warns that money spent with criminal gambling operators is money the British Treasury never sees and money that doesn’t support regulated sports and gambling.
The BGC cites WARC analysis suggesting that unregulated operators are now responsible for nearly half of all UK gambling ad spend. The BGC also points to an H2 Gambling Capital forecast that illegal betting in Britain could nearly double, rising from just under £17 billion this year to more than £33 billion by 2028.
European Gaming has already reported how unlicensed operators can reach British audiences through influencers and tipster accounts. The challenge has grown bigger than just classic bookmaker advertisements, with illegal companies finding ways to connect with people online.
Premier League Drops Front-of-Shirt Gambling Brands
This is the first Premier League season with no gambling brands on the front of matchday shirts, though logos remain permitted on sleeves and training kit.
The BGC supports that move and welcomes the Government’s plan to stop football clubs from taking sponsorship from operators without a UK licence. The trade group wants the rule to go even further banning illegal gambling companies from sponsoring any sport in the UK.
The Department for Culture, Media and Sport opened a consultation on the proposed ban on 15 July 2026. It closes at 11:59pm on 9 September 2026.
Grainne Hurst, chief executive of the BGC, said licensed operators follow strict rules on consumer protection and safer gambling while illegal operators avoid taxes and ignore those standards. She said the BGC supports action that keeps customers within the regulated market.
The BGC says the regulated sector supports over 109,000 jobs, contributes £6.8 billion to the economy and pays more than £4 billion in tax annually. The government expects the duty changes to raise more than £1 billion a year, and its own impact assessment accepts that operators may cut odds or returns, prompting some customers to switch activity or move to illegal sites.
